Strong Supply and Demand, Tin Prices Fluctuate at High Levels [Institutional Commentary]

The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 287,480 yuan/mt, up 1.82% (as of 3:00 PM yesterday). Domestically, SHFE futures registered warrants increased by 401 mt, now standing at 9,347 mt. LME inventory remained unchanged at 3,050 mt. In February 2025, China's refined tin production was 14,050 mt, down 9.3% MoM, but up 10.02% YoY.

CPCA data shows that from March 1 to 23, national passenger vehicle retail sales reached 1.154 million units, up 18% YoY and 25% MoM. Year-to-date retail sales totaled 4.33 million units, up 5% YoY. National new energy passenger vehicle retail sales reached 622,000 units, up 30% YoY and 40% MoM. Year-to-date new energy retail sales totaled 2.048 million units, up 34% YoY. From January to February, cumulative tin ore imports were 18,587 mt, down 50.15% YoY. Cumulative domestic tin ingot imports were 4,203 mt, down 16.61% YoY. Tin prices hovered at highs.

Overall, the Myanmar earthquake has once again disrupted tin ore supply expectations. The Manxiang mine resumption and production exchange meeting originally scheduled for April 1 was canceled, with the specific time to be further notified. Considering China's high refined tin production and the peak consumption season, tin is expected to show strong supply and demand in the short term. Subsequent attention should focus on the resumption of tin mines in the DRC and Myanmar. Tin prices are expected to hover at highs. Strategically, the market is expected to maintain high volatility, with the near-far month price spread expected to remain unchanged under current inventory levels. The domestic reference range is 260,000-330,000 yuan/mt. The LME-3M reference range is $35,000-39,000/mt.